4C6D6B46-8CD3-428D-B238-8FC9ADCBB271 eng utf8 dataset Phillip Morefield U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development-National Center for Environmental Assessment EDG Steward (703) 308-8135 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington DC 20460 morefield.philip@epa.gov https://www.epa.gov/ord/ website information pointOfContact 2025-06-24 NAP - Metadata 1.2 4269 EPSG ICLUS v2.1.1 population projections Updates to the Demographic and Spatial Allocation Models to Produce Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS), Version 2 2017-02-28 creation 2017-02-28 publication 2018-02-28 revision Phillip Morefield U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development-National Center for Environmental Assessment EDG Steward (202) 564-7549 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington DC 20460 US morefield.philip@epa.gov https://www.epa.gov/ord/ website information principalInvestigator The methodology used to produce these projections differs from ICLUS v2.0 (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iclus/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322479). The demographic components of change (i.e., rates of fertility and mortality) for ICLUS v2.1 were taken directly from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (http://witt.null2.net/shiny/wic/). These projections were produced more recently than the Census projections used in ICLUS v2.0, and incorporate more recent observations of population change. SSP2 is a “middle-of-the-road” projection, where social, economic and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns, resulting in a U.S. population of 455 million people by 2100. Domestic migration trends remain largely consistent with the recent past, however the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. The SSP5 narrative describes a rapidly growing and flourishing global economy that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and a U.S. population that exceeds 730 million by 2100. ICLUS v2.1 land use projections under SSP5 result in a considerably larger expansion of developed lands relative to SSP2. The the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. RCP4.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase into the latter part of the century, before leveling off and eventually stabilizing by 2100 as a result of various climate change policies. RCP8.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase through the year 2100. Climate and land-use change are major components of global environmental change. The first version of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project modeled population, residential development, and impervious surface cover changes by decade to the year 2100. Those modeling choices and assumptions were intended to be consistent with four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ICLUS version 2 is designed to be consistent with a more recent IPCC scenarios framework, drawing assumptions from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Improvements include the use of updated input data, integration of changing climate variables within the migration model, inclusion transportation network capacity and increase over time, growth in commercial and industrial land uses, and the use of population density-driven demands for residential housing, as well as commercial and industrial development. Phillip Morefield U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development-National Center for Environmental Assessment EDG Steward (703) 308-8135 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington DC 20460 morefield.philip@epa.gov https://www.epa.gov/ord/ website information publisher United States place EPA Place Names 2015-01-31 publication Climate Human Land Modeling theme EPA GIS Keyword Thesaurus 2007-11-02 publication 020:094 theme Federal Program Inventory 2013-09-16 publication None. Please check sources, scale, accuracy, currency and other available information. Please confirm that you are using the most recent copy of both data and metadata. Acknowledgement of the EPA would be appreciated. eng utf8 true -124.763068 -66.949895 24.523096 49.384358 2000-01-01T00:00:00 2100-12-31T00:00:00 https://dmap-prod-oms-edc.s3.amazonaws.com/ORD/NCEA/ICLUS_v2.1.1/population/ICLUS_v2_1_1_population.zip WWW:LINK download