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S&T Project 22050 Final Report: Evaluating Water Temperature Modeling and Prediction in the Sacramento River Basin

Metadata Updated: January 16, 2026

This project focused on assessing and identifying avenues to improve Reclamation’s current temperature modeling use of seasonal predictions of input meteorology, as well as on several related investigations. The effort developed a new overview for Reclamation and stakeholders of the methods and performance of the meteorologic forecasts currently being applied for water temperature simulation. To facilitate this effort, the current spreadsheet-based Local Three-Month Temperature Outlook (L3MTO) method was duplicated in a set of Python scripts, which were transitioned to Reclamation for potential use in operations at Shasta Lake and other California facilities. These scripts make hindcast analyses feasible and provide flexibility in examining alternative inputs and ease in conducting supporting analyses. The scripts were used to test or demonstrate several variations on the approach, including using Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) forecasts from other sources, and to assess the skill of the approach and its likely upper limits of performance. In particular, the work showed that the temperature model input forecasts had mean monthly skill in the first lead month of the forecast and indicated potential for improvement through further development of the input climate forecasts as well as using alternatives to the climate-conditioned deterministic analog selection method. The project also implemented a California-wide daily gridded meteorological analysis using a tool called the Gridded Meteorological Ensemble Tool (GMET), and a demonstration of a linked Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives-mizuRoute-River Basin Model (SUMMA-mizuRoute-RBM) model for the Shasta and Trinity Lake drainage areas, demonstrating the feasibility of a distributed strategy for stream temperature simulation and potentially prediction.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date January 16, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 16, 2026
Data Update Frequency irregular

Metadata Source

Harvested from doi-usbr-dcat-us

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date January 16, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 16, 2026
Publisher Bureau of Reclamation
Maintainer
Identifier https://datainventory.usbr.gov/rise/item/133817
Data Last Modified 2025-10-01T18:12:44Z
Public Access Level public
Data Update Frequency irregular
Bureau Code 010:10
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usbr-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Harvest Object Id 4370f03b-d69c-4e2d-9a37-37530517974e
Harvest Source Id 2e071c0c-5baa-4285-842a-b0a5711bf75d
Harvest Source Title doi-usbr-dcat-us
Homepage URL https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/8140/item/133817
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Source Hash 12ec074c797ab8b47622b3a9fede91f930f142f4b89593dcacad2d8f6b60b318
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