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Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: a case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Metadata Updated: January 19, 2026

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011-2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3,880 households and 6,940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date January 12, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 19, 2026

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date January 12, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 19, 2026
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/USGS_58ac919fe4b0ce4410e7d7e5
Data Last Modified 2020-08-30T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Datagov Dedupe Retained 20260119153509
Harvest Object Id 2d036efc-cfee-47ac-aa7a-91f8803310ac
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
Old Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -126.34277343607, 39.401906255305, -126.34277343607, 49.123932917694, -121.33300781126, 49.123932917694, -121.33300781126, 39.401906255305, -126.34277343607, 39.401906255305}
Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash f246fb6ff66a2b40130dd58851bf92b08b847b35bf81de473ed1425d8ca7dac1
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -126.34277343607, 39.401906255305, -126.34277343607, 49.123932917694, -121.33300781126, 49.123932917694, -121.33300781126, 39.401906255305, -126.34277343607, 39.401906255305}

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