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    • Modeling Potential Changes in Seagrass Coverage, Biomass and Vulnerability Under Increased Temperature

    Metadata Updated: January 25, 2026

    Increased water temperature from global climate change may exacerbate existing stresses to eelgrass (Zostera marina) meadows throughout the northeastern United States, possibly leading to declines in populations. In this study, we developed a data-driven model to estimate how seagrass distribution and abundance will likely change with expected temperature increases under climate-change scenarios and applied the model to Pleasant Bay, Massachusetts. Long-term seagrass and water quality monitoring data along with satellite temperature data were used to generate the spatial distribution of environmental drivers across the Bay. These data were then used in a 0-D point-model that incorporated both empirical and mechanistic relationships to predict future spatial seagrass distribution and abundance assuming increases of 1.2°C and 1.95°C by the year 2050. The model demonstrated decline in distribution and abundance with increasing temperature alongside estimated 49 to 93% reductions in biomass. There was a complete loss of regions able to sustain seagrass under the highest temperature scenario. Most of the predicted loss occurred along the shallow and deep edges of the meadows effectively squeezing eelgrass into a narrow depth range where both light and temperature conditions remain favorable for eelgrass growth. These results are intended to help inform the development of targeted conservation and management actions to address the region-wide downward trajectory and facilitate recovery.

    Access & Use Information

    Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

    Downloads & Resources

    Dates

    Metadata Created Date January 13, 2026
    Metadata Updated Date January 25, 2026

    Metadata Source

    Harvested from DOI NPS DCAT-US

    Other Data Resources

    Additional Metadata

    Resource Type Dataset
    Metadata Created Date January 13, 2026
    Metadata Updated Date January 25, 2026
    Publisher National Park Service
    Maintainer
    Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/NPS_DataStore_2300463
    Data First Published 2023-08-22T00:00:00Z
    Data Last Modified 2023-08-22T00:00:00Z
    Category Generic Dataset
    Public Access Level public
    Bureau Code 010:24
    Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
    Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/nps-data.json
    Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
    Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
    Harvest Object Id 06e52f83-eaf8-438d-81c8-1c1301ef61c5
    Harvest Source Id d917c1a9-26b7-43ea-b8c5-c77ec750a850
    Harvest Source Title DOI NPS DCAT-US
    Homepage URL https://irma.nps.gov/DataStore/Reference/Profile/2300463
    Old Spatial -70.25153,41.5994873,-69.92308,42.0868721
    Program Code 010:118, 010:119
    Source Datajson Identifier True
    Source Hash 11d38639aaf4dc14daa4072829b8796aa2784b00924249987e6184f63469cff4
    Source Schema Version 1.1
    Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -70.25153, 41.5994873, -70.25153, 42.0868721, -69.92308, 42.0868721, -69.92308, 41.5994873, -70.25153, 41.5994873}
    Temporal 2003-01-01/2019-01-01

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