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A deep learning model and associated data to support understanding and simulation of salinity dynamics in Delaware Bay

Metadata Updated: January 21, 2026

Salinity dynamics in the Delaware Bay estuary are a critical water quality concern as elevated salinity can damage infrastructure and threaten drinking water supplies. Current state-of-the-art modeling approaches use hydrodynamic models, which can produce accurate results but are limited by significant computational costs. We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict the 250 mg/L Cl- isochlor, also known as the salt front, using daily river discharge, meteorological drivers, and tidal water level data. We use the ML model to predict the location of the salt front, measured in river miles (RM) along the Delaware River, during the period 2001-2020, and we compare the ML model results to results from the hydrodynamic Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. The ML model shows RMSE = 2.52 RM during the five-year holdout period, superior to three overlapping years of COAWST model predictions, RMSE = 5.36 RM, however the ML model struggles to predict extreme events. Further, we use functional performance and expected gradients, tools from information theory and explainable artificial intelligence, to show that the ML model learns physically realistic relationships between the salt front location and drivers (particularly discharge and tidal water level). These results demonstrate how an ML modeling approach can provide predictive and functional accuracy at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to process-based models. Additionally, these results provide support for using ML models for applications in operational forecasting, scenario testing, management decision making, hindcasting, and resulting opportunities to understand past behavior and develop hypotheses. In this model archive, we provide the scripts and configurations to fetch data for the machine learning model, to process the data for the machine learning model, to run the machine learning model and to analyze the functional performance of the machine learning model.

Access & Use Information

Public: This dataset is intended for public access and use. License: No license information was provided. If this work was prepared by an officer or employee of the United States government as part of that person's official duties it is considered a U.S. Government Work.

Downloads & Resources

Dates

Metadata Created Date January 11, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 21, 2026

Metadata Source

Harvested from DOI USGS DCAT-US

Additional Metadata

Resource Type Dataset
Metadata Created Date January 11, 2026
Metadata Updated Date January 21, 2026
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Maintainer
Identifier http://datainventory.doi.gov/id/dataset/USGS_6421bccdd34e807d39ba9099
Data Last Modified 2023-09-08T00:00:00Z
Category geospatial
Public Access Level public
Bureau Code 010:12
Metadata Context https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.jsonld
Metadata Catalog ID https://ddi.doi.gov/usgs-data.json
Schema Version https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema
Catalog Describedby https://project-open-data.cio.gov/v1.1/schema/catalog.json
Datagov Dedupe Retained 20260121130127
Harvest Object Id 33c23b5b-ecfd-492a-acb1-11292f030ad7
Harvest Source Id 2b80d118-ab3a-48ba-bd93-996bbacefac2
Harvest Source Title DOI USGS DCAT-US
Metadata Type geospatial
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Source Datajson Identifier True
Source Hash 659f98e1903c6e1d3ad1e9e1d43eca548e61226c1b1d0bc2a93bb5ea3408d830
Source Schema Version 1.1
Spatial {"type": "Polygon", "coordinates": -76.395553, 38.683371, -76.395553, 42.462445, -74.357422, 42.462445, -74.357422, 38.683371, -76.395553, 38.683371}

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